Model Predictions
| Model | Virginia Cavaliers | North Carolina Tar Heels | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 59.2% | 40.8% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 51.4% | 48.6% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 25.9% | 74.1% | +5.8 | ✓ (1.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 45.0% | 55.0% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 33.3% | 66.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 44.4% | 55.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 44.4% | 55.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: North Carolina Tar Heels +4 (61-57). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Virginia Cavaliers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Brogdon * | 36 | 6-22 | 2-9 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 0 | - |
| L. Perrantes * | 34 | 3-14 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | -3 | -5.3 |
| A. Gill * | 30 | 5-8 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 13 | +7.7 |
| I. Wilkins * | 22 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -5.2 |
| Dallin Hall * | 22 | 3-4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 7 | - |
| M. Shayok | 20 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | +2.3 |
| M. Tobey | 14 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -0.4 |
| E. Nolte | 13 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | +7.2 |
| D. Thompson | 9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5.4 |
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Berry II * | 35 | 5-8 | 3-3 | 6-6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 15 | +7.7 |
| Marcus Paige * | 34 | 5-13 | 0-7 | 3-5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 5 | - |
| Brice Johnson * | 33 | 6-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 19 | +7.8 |
| Justin Jackson * | 28 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 | - |
| Kennedy Meeks * | 20 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | +2.7 |
| Isaiah Hicks | 16 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 4 | +2.9 |
| Theo Pinson | 12 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Nate Britt | 11 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | - |
| Kenny Williams | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Joel James | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1.1 |
* = starter