Model Predictions
| Model | Phoenix Mercury | Dallas Wings | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 45.0% | 55.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 53.0% | 47.0% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 52.7% | 47.3% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 56.0% | 44.0% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 59.3% | 40.7% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 59.3% | 40.7% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 51.6% | 48.4% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Dallas Wings +10 (100-90). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brittney Griner * | 37 | 8-11 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 17 | - |
| Diana Taurasi * | 29 | 6-14 | 0-3 | 7-8 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 9 | - |
| Penny Taylor * | 26 | 4-6 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 11 | - |
| Sonja Petrovic * | 13 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 4-4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 7 | - |
| Isabelle Harrison * | 10 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | - |
| DeWanna Bonner | 30 | 8-15 | 2-7 | 8-10 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 26 | 19 | - |
| Mistie Bass | 26 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 7 | - |
| Noelle Quinn | 12 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | - |
| Alex Harden | 10 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | - |
| Courtney Williams | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Dallas Wings
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odyssey Sims * | 31 | 6-13 | 0-3 | 5-7 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 14 | - |
| Karima Christmas-Kelly * | 29 | 4-7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 8 | - |
| Plenette Pierson * | 29 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | - |
| Skylar Diggins-Smith * | 23 | 8-12 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 9 | - |
| Courtney Paris * | 19 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | - |
| Glory Johnson | 23 | 6-14 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 13 | - |
| Erin Phillips | 11 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | - |
| Aerial Powers | 11 | 3-7 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 3 | - |
| Jordan Hooper | 9 | 4-4 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 7 | - |
| Theresa Plaisance | 4 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Brianna Kiesel | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Ruth Hamblin | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter