Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | Louisville Cardinals | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 49.7% | 50.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 41.1% | 58.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 64.7% | 35.3% | -3.3 | ✗ (9.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 53.4% | 46.6% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 79.4% | 20.6% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 71.7% | 28.3% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 71.8% | 28.2% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Louisville Cardinals +6 (71-65). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Berry II * | 34 | 1-10 | 1-5 | 4-4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 3 | -3.2 |
| Marcus Paige * | 34 | 3-13 | 1-6 | 2-3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 4 | -7.4 |
| Brice Johnson * | 27 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 7-9 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 19 | -0.7 |
| Justin Jackson * | 26 | 6-9 | 0-2 | 4-5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 9 | - |
| Kennedy Meeks * | 18 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -4.4 |
| Theo Pinson | 19 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | - |
| Isaiah Hicks | 17 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 7 | -3.3 |
| Nate Britt | 12 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -3.3 |
| Joel James | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Kenny Williams | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Luke Maye | 3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | - |
Louisville Cardinals
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Lee * | 40 | 8-12 | 4-7 | 4-4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 16 | +12.5 |
| Q. Snider * | 36 | 2-11 | 0-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | +5.8 |
| T. Lewis * | 26 | 3-7 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 5 | +5.8 |
| C. Onuaku * | 23 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 13 | - |
| J. Johnson * | 9 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - |
| R. Spalding | 28 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | - |
| D. Mitchell | 18 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 9 | - |
| A. Mahmoud | 17 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 8 | +6.2 |
| D. Adel | 3 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - |
* = starter