Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | Florida State Seminoles | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 74.6% | 25.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 41.8% | 58.2% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 64.4% | 35.6% | -3.3 | ✓ (12.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 65.2% | 34.8% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 91.9% | 8.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 85.0% | 15.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 85.0% | 15.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Florida State Seminoles -16 (90-106). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brice Johnson * | 37 | 14-16 | 0-0 | 11-16 | 23 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 39 | 50 | +13.6 |
| Marcus Paige * | 35 | 10-21 | 5-9 | 5-6 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 19 | +4.6 |
| Justin Jackson * | 32 | 3-12 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -1 | - |
| J. Berry II * | 23 | 5-10 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 6 | -7.7 |
| Joel James * | 10 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -8.6 |
| Nate Britt | 23 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 4 | +4.5 |
| Theo Pinson | 19 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Isaiah Hicks | 12 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 6-6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 10 | - |
| Kenny Williams | 7 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Luke Maye | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Florida State Seminoles
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Rathan-Mayes * | 34 | 8-16 | 7-9 | 7-9 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 30 | 18 | - |
| Dwayne Bacon * | 28 | 6-18 | 0-2 | 6-8 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 10 | - |
| Malik Beasley * | 24 | 5-11 | 1-2 | 4-5 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 14 | - |
| Montay Brandon * | 22 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | - |
| Boris Bojanovsky * | 15 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 | -10.6 |
| Devon Bookert | 29 | 3-8 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 1 | -0.3 |
| Terance Mann | 18 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | - |
| Benji Bell | 13 | 4-6 | 1-1 | 1-3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 3 | -10.5 |
| Christ Koumadje | 9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
| Jarquez Smith | 8 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +9.9 |
* = starter