Model Predictions
| Model | Duke Blue Devils | North Carolina Tar Heels | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 73.6% | 26.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 57.7% | 42.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 50.6% | 49.4% | -0.1 | ✓ (0.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 40.4% | 59.6% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 15.3% | 84.7% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 18.9% | 81.1% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 19.0% | 81.0% | - | ✗ |
Actual: North Carolina Tar Heels -1 (73-74). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Duke Blue Devils
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grayson Allen * | 40 | 7-18 | 1-5 | 8-10 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 12 | - |
| Brandon Ingram * | 40 | 7-21 | 2-5 | 4-4 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 15 | - |
| Derryck Thornton * | 39 | 2-9 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +4.6 |
| Marshall Plumlee * | 35 | 5-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 13 | +12.8 |
| Matt Jones * | 9 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | - |
| Luke Kennard | 32 | 6-9 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 7 | - |
| Chase Jeter | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Paige * | 35 | 2-10 | 0-6 | 3-4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Brice Johnson * | 33 | 13-17 | 0-0 | 3-5 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 29 | 30 | +0.6 |
| Justin Jackson * | 32 | 6-13 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 12 | - |
| J. Berry II * | 29 | 2-12 | 1-3 | 3-3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -1 | -4.9 |
| Kennedy Meeks * | 22 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 8 | - |
| Nate Britt | 14 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 8 | +5.1 |
| Theo Pinson | 14 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Isaiah Hicks | 13 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -5.0 |
| Luke Maye | 5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Joel James | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter