Model Predictions
| Model | Michigan State Spartans | Northwestern Wildcats | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 89.6% | 10.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 61.6% | 38.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 73.4% | 26.6% | -5.6 | ✓ (25.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 86.6% | 13.4% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 96.8% | 3.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 95.6% | 4.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 95.7% | 4.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Northwestern Wildcats -31 (45-76). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Michigan State Spartans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denzel Valentine * | 30 | 7-11 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 19 | 15 | +6.0 |
| Eron Harris * | 26 | 2-7 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | +5.0 |
| Bryn Forbes * | 25 | 3-6 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 5 | - |
| Deyonta Davis * | 22 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 18 | - |
| Matt Costello * | 12 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | +8.9 |
| Matt McQuaid | 21 | 6-10 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 10 | -1.0 |
| Kenny Goins | 15 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 9 | - |
| Gavin Schilling | 13 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +4.6 |
| A. Ellis III | 12 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Javon Bess | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -6.6 |
| M. Clark II | 6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - |
| Colby Wollenman | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Kyle Ahrens | 4 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | - |
| Matt Van Dyk | 3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | - |
Northwestern Wildcats
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Falzon * | 35 | 3-9 | 2-6 | 3-4 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 12 | - |
| Bryant McIntosh * | 31 | 4-15 | 2-5 | 4-4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 2 | -3.1 |
| Tre Demps * | 29 | 2-14 | 0-7 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -6 | - |
| Sanjay Lumpkin * | 27 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Alex Olah * | 19 | 0-6 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -10.4 |
| Dererk Pardon | 19 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 | - |
| Nathan Taphorn | 18 | 0-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | - |
| Jordan Ash | 14 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Gavin Skelly | 5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Joey van Zegeren | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter