Model Predictions
| Model | Illinois Fighting Illini | Michigan State Spartans | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 37.4% | 62.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 27.7% | 72.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 26.0% | 74.0% | +5.7 | ✓ (19.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 12.4% | 87.6% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Michigan State Spartans +25 (79-54). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Illinois Fighting Illini
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Finke * | 30 | 2-10 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +5.1 |
| M. Morgan * | 30 | 2-9 | 0-0 | 11-14 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 11 | -9.6 |
| M. Hill * | 23 | 4-10 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 5 | -9.3 |
| J. Coleman-Lands * | 22 | 3-10 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -4 | - |
| J. Tate * | 20 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +4.5 |
| K. Lewis | 25 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | -9.5 |
| A. Jordan | 23 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| D.J. Williams | 18 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 | - |
| A. Austin | 7 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
| C. Liss | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Michigan State Spartans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G. Roy | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| B. Forbes * | 25 | 7-13 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 8 | - |
| L. Nairn Jr. * | 24 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -19.0 |
| E. Harris * | 22 | 5-9 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 5 | +13.6 |
| M. Costello * | 20 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 16 | +14.3 |
| G. Schilling * | 17 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 7 | +12.9 |
| D. Davis | 19 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 16 | - |
| M. McQuaid | 18 | 3-6 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 10 | +16.4 |
| J. Bess | 15 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | - |
| A. Ellis III | 11 | 2-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | - |
| M. Clark II | 9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| K. Goins | 8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| C. Wollenman | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - |
| K. Ahrens | 3 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | - |
| M. Van Dyk | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter