Model Predictions
| Model | UCF Knights | SMU Mustangs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 56.1% | 43.9% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 51.4% | 48.6% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 27.8% | 72.2% | +5.3 | ✓ (9.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 9.1% | 90.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 3.1% | 96.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 3.1% | 96.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: SMU Mustangs +15 (88-73). Predictions use season-end ratings.
UCF Knights
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Staphon Blair | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| A.J. Davis * | 35 | 1-9 | 0-3 | 8-9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 8 | - |
| Adonys Henriquez * | 30 | 3-6 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | - |
| Matt Williams * | 25 | 4-6 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 8 | - |
| Daiquan Walker * | 20 | 0-5 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Tacko Fall * | 12 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 | - |
| Justin McBride | 28 | 9-12 | 0-0 | 2-7 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 18 | - |
| Chance McSpadden | 20 | 3-4 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 6 | - |
| Shaheed Davis | 15 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Tanksley Efianayi | 14 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | - |
| Chad Brown | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
SMU Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shake Milton * | 35 | 3-9 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 6 | - |
| Ben Moore * | 35 | 11-17 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 14 | - |
| Nic Moore * | 32 | 6-12 | 6-9 | 2-2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 9 | - |
| Sterling Brown * | 32 | 4-5 | 2-2 | 3-4 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 18 | - |
| Jordan Tolbert * | 28 | 7-10 | 0-0 | 5-5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 16 | - |
| Jarrey Foster | 22 | 2-7 | 1-2 | 0-2 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 13 | - |
| Markus Kennedy | 14 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Jake Brudish | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Jonathan Wilfong | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter