Model Predictions
| Model | NC State Wolfpack | Virginia Cavaliers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 18.1% | 81.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 32.9% | 67.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 23.8% | 76.2% | +6.4 | ✓ (13.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 29.9% | 70.1% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 2.1% | 97.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 4.8% | 95.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 4.8% | 95.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Virginia Cavaliers +20 (73-53). Predictions use season-end ratings.
NC State Wolfpack
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Martin | 19 | 1-7 | 1-6 | 3-6 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | - |
| C. Barber * | 40 | 4-11 | 1-3 | 5-6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 6 | -2.7 |
| M. Rowan * | 35 | 1-10 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -3 | -2.8 |
| C. Martin * | 32 | 6-10 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 10 | - |
| L. Freeman * | 25 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 7 | -8.1 |
| A. Abu * | 22 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | - |
| B. Anya | 27 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 11 | +4.5 |
Virginia Cavaliers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Brogdon * | 35 | 9-13 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 15 | - |
| L. Perrantes * | 34 | 6-11 | 5-8 | 2-2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 11 | - |
| I. Wilkins * | 33 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 | +9.7 |
| D. Hall * | 25 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | +9.9 |
| A. Gill * | 23 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | -2.7 |
| M. Shayok | 18 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | +6.9 |
| M. Tobey | 17 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | +9.9 |
| D. Thompson | 6 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3.1 |
| E. Nolte | 4 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3.2 |
| J. Salt | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| J. Reuter | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | - |
| C. Kirven | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter