Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Toronto Raptors | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 30.6% | 69.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 35.0% | 65.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 32.4% | 67.6% | +4.0 | ✓ (4.0 off) |
| Pythagorean | 45.9% | 54.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 42.4% | 57.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 42.4% | 57.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 40.9% | 59.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Toronto Raptors +8 (112-104). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Johnson * | 43 | 11-21 | 4-7 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 28 | 12 | - |
| Justise Winslow * | 42 | 4-9 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 12 | - |
| Goran Dragic * | 41 | 5-18 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 8 | - |
| Luol Deng * | 36 | 7-18 | 2-8 | 4-5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 8 | - |
| Amar'e Stoudemire * | 19 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | - |
| Hassan Whiteside | 33 | 5-12 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 15 | - |
| Josh Richardson | 26 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 6 | - |
| Gerald Green | 21 | 1-9 | 1-4 | 4-4 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | - |
Toronto Raptors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Lowry * | 44 | 4-16 | 2-8 | 6-6 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 7 | - |
| DeMar DeRozan * | 43 | 13-26 | 0-2 | 12-15 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 38 | 29 | - |
| Jonas Valanciunas * | 32 | 7-11 | 0-0 | 6-6 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 20 | - |
| James Johnson * | 21 | 5-7 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 9 | - |
| Luis Scola * | 16 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | - |
| Patrick Patterson | 36 | 3-8 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 8 | - |
| Cory Joseph | 30 | 1-7 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 6 | - |
| Bismack Biyombo | 20 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | - |
| Terrence Ross | 19 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | - |
* = starter