Model Predictions
| Model | Duke Blue Devils | VCU Rams | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 43.3% | 56.7% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 50.8% | 49.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 59.1% | 40.9% | -2.0 | ✓ (6.0 off) |
| Pythagorean | 46.0% | 54.0% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 65.6% | 34.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 66.1% | 33.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 53.2% | 46.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: VCU Rams -8 (71-79). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Duke Blue Devils
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amile Jefferson * | 34 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2-7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 | - |
| Derryck Thornton * | 31 | 7-11 | 2-3 | 3-5 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 11 | - |
| Matt Jones * | 31 | 4-11 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 4 | - |
| Brandon Ingram * | 26 | 2-7 | 0-3 | 4-11 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 7 | - |
| Marshall Plumlee * | 21 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 | - |
| Grayson Allen | 37 | 9-15 | 4-8 | 8-9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 30 | 23 | - |
| Luke Kennard | 20 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
VCU Rams
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Johnson * | 33 | 7-13 | 4-6 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 9 | - |
| Jordan Burgess * | 30 | 4-10 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 3 | - |
| JeQuan Lewis * | 28 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 5 | - |
| Mo Alie-Cox * | 27 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 3-5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 6 | - |
| Justin Tillman * | 16 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | - |
| Korey Billbury | 23 | 4-10 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 4 | - |
| Doug Brooks | 14 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Ahmed Hamdy Mohamed | 12 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 5 | - |
| Jonathan Williams | 11 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | - |
| Michael Gilmore | 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Torey Burston | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter