Model Predictions
| Model | Cal Poly Mustangs | USC Trojans | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 3.5% | 96.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.3% | 95.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 2.0% | 98.0% | +21.5 | ✓ (2.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 9.1% | 90.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: USC Trojans +19 (101-82). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Sutlive * | 27 | 5-9 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 8 | +4.5 |
| Brian Bennett * | 23 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 7 | +1.0 |
| David Nwaba * | 21 | 5-14 | 0-1 | 5-6 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 8 | +5.5 |
| Ridge Shipley * | 17 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | - |
| Joel Awich * | 17 | 2-10 | 0-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -1 | +5.2 |
| Luke Meikle | 28 | 4-7 | 2-2 | 3-4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 8 | +4.8 |
| Jaylen Shead | 22 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 11 | +1.1 |
| Reese Morgan | 20 | 2-6 | 2-3 | 3-3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | +1.1 |
| Zach Gordon | 15 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 7 | +4.5 |
| Josh Martin | 10 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
USC Trojans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Reinhardt * | 30 | 9-12 | 7-9 | 4-5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 23 | - |
| J. McLaughlin * | 27 | 1-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | - |
| J. Jacobs * | 27 | 4-9 | 0-1 | 2-6 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 14 | -3.5 |
| B. Boatwright * | 19 | 3-6 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 12 | -3.5 |
| N. Jovanovic * | 18 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 5-8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 14 | -3.4 |
| E. Stewart | 22 | 2-6 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -3.5 |
| C. Metu | 21 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 12 | - |
| D. Clark | 13 | 5-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 10 | -1.0 |
| M. Marquetti | 11 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | - |
| M. Martin | 9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| S. Gavrilovic | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter