Model Predictions
| Model | Cal Poly Mustangs | UCLA Bruins | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 5.6% | 94.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.3% | 96.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 0.9% | 99.1% | +26.2 | ✓ (21.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 14.5% | 85.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 1.3% | 98.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 1.3% | 98.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: UCLA Bruins +5 (88-83). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Nwaba * | 31 | 2-10 | 0-0 | 4-7 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 7 | -0.9 |
| Taylor Sutlive * | 31 | 5-7 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 9 | -0.1 |
| Ridge Shipley * | 23 | 2-6 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | -1.5 |
| Joel Awich * | 17 | 4-8 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 7 | -1.1 |
| Aleks Abrams * | 12 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | - |
| Luke Meikle | 24 | 6-14 | 2-4 | 4-5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 5 | +2.6 |
| Reese Morgan | 21 | 6-12 | 6-10 | 2-4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 14 | +1.1 |
| Zach Gordon | 14 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -1.0 |
| Jaylen Shead | 13 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -0.2 |
| Brian Bennett | 12 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Trevor John | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
UCLA Bruins
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Alford * | 38 | 5-9 | 2-5 | 6-8 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 16 | - |
| Isaac Hamilton * | 36 | 4-12 | 0-4 | 3-4 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 18 | +2.8 |
| Aaron Holiday * | 32 | 4-10 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 13 | - |
| Tony Parker * | 30 | 6-13 | 0-0 | 4-9 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 16 | +3.0 |
| Thomas Welsh * | 30 | 10-12 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 15 | - |
| Jonah Bolden | 22 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 3-3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 10 | - |
| Prince Ali | 10 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | -0.4 |
| Alex Olesinski | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | - |
* = starter