Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | Virginia Cavaliers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 25.7% | 74.3% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 35.2% | 64.8% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 47.8% | 52.2% | +0.5 | ✗ (4.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 39.2% | 60.8% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 14.7% | 85.3% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 9.4% | 90.6% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 8.9% | 91.1% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Virginia Cavaliers -4 (67-71). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Paige * | 36 | 4-12 | 2-7 | 4-4 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 10 | - |
| J.P. Tokoto * | 33 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 8 | - |
| J. Jackson * | 31 | 8-10 | 4-5 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 17 | - |
| B. Johnson * | 29 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 13 | - |
| K. Meeks * | 26 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 5-9 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 16 | - |
| J. Berry II | 16 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | - |
| I. Hicks | 14 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | - |
| J. James | 11 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -3 | - |
| N. Britt | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
Virginia Cavaliers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Brogdon * | 38 | 9-18 | 3-6 | 4-4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 25 | 10 | - |
| L. Perrantes * | 35 | 3-7 | 1-3 | 5-6 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 7 | - |
| D. Atkins * | 31 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -1 | - |
| A. Gill * | 27 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 13 | - |
| E. Nolte * | 20 | 2-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | - |
| M. Shayok | 18 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 2-4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 10 | - |
| J. Anderson | 14 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | - |
| M. Tobey | 9 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
| I. Wilkins | 8 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | - |
* = starter