Model Predictions
| Model | Phoenix Mercury | Washington Mystics | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 51.4% | 48.6% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 51.2% | 48.8% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 43.4% | 56.6% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 50.8% | 49.2% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 45.6% | 54.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 45.6% | 54.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 38.0% | 62.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Washington Mystics +8 (71-63). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brittney Griner * | 31 | 6-12 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 7 | - |
| DeWanna Bonner * | 30 | 3-10 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 13 | - |
| Candice Dupree * | 29 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 1 | - |
| Marta Xargay * | 15 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Monique Currie * | 14 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | - |
| Noelle Quinn | 25 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 8 | - |
| Leilani Mitchell | 24 | 6-13 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 7 | - |
| Cayla George | 12 | 2-7 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -3 | - |
| Alex Harden | 9 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Mistie Bass | 6 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | - |
Washington Mystics
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natasha Cloud * | 31 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 10 | - |
| Ivory Latta * | 31 | 6-11 | 3-5 | 9-9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 22 | - |
| Tierra Ruffin-Pratt * | 28 | 2-7 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 3 | - |
| Emma Meesseman * | 26 | 7-12 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 12 | - |
| Stefanie Dolson * | 25 | 4-7 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 10 | - |
| Kia Vaughn | 14 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | - |
| LaToya Sanders | 13 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Armintie Herrington | 12 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | - |
| Bria Hartley | 11 | 3-7 | 1-3 | 2-3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 4 | - |
| Ally Malott | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter