Model Predictions
| Model | Dallas Wings | Phoenix Mercury | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 14.1% | 85.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 42.4% | 57.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 34.5% | 65.5% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 46.0% | 54.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 42.9% | 57.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 42.9% | 57.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 42.3% | 57.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Phoenix Mercury +3 (87-84). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Dallas Wings
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odyssey Sims * | 40 | 5-20 | 1-4 | 4-4 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 5 | - |
| Riquna Williams * | 39 | 5-17 | 2-9 | 5-6 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 4 | - |
| Plenette Pierson * | 38 | 5-10 | 1-1 | 3-3 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 13 | - |
| Karima Christmas-Kelly * | 36 | 5-10 | 2-4 | 5-6 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 15 | - |
| Courtney Paris * | 36 | 7-11 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 23 | - |
| Vicki Baugh | 13 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | - |
| Brianna Kiesel | 9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Jordan Hooper | 8 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Theresa Plaisance | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeWanna Bonner * | 41 | 6-16 | 3-5 | 10-10 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 25 | 22 | - |
| Brittney Griner * | 39 | 7-13 | 0-0 | 4-7 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 18 | 21 | - |
| Candice Dupree * | 35 | 10-17 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 15 | - |
| Leilani Mitchell * | 32 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 7 | - |
| Monique Currie * | 13 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Noelle Quinn | 28 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | - |
| Tiffany Bias | 12 | 2-7 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | - |
| Cayla George | 8 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | - |
| Mistie Bass | 7 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | - |
| Alex Harden | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter