Model Predictions
| Model | Dallas Wings | Phoenix Mercury | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 18.0% | 82.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 56.4% | 43.6% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 48.5% | 51.5% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 54.6% | 45.4% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 63.4% | 36.6% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 63.5% | 36.5% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 66.3% | 33.7% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Phoenix Mercury +31 (86-55). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Dallas Wings
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brianna Kiesel * | 30 | 2-9 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -4 | - |
| Karima Christmas-Kelly * | 28 | 4-8 | 1-3 | 2-4 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 16 | - |
| Riquna Williams * | 27 | 3-13 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -6 | - |
| Plenette Pierson * | 25 | 0-11 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -5 | - |
| Courtney Paris * | 19 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 4 | - |
| Jordan Hooper | 24 | 2-7 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | - |
| Vicki Baugh | 15 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 3-5 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9 | - |
| Amanda Zahui B | 14 | 2-5 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | - |
| Theresa Plaisance | 13 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 4-4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 | - |
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brittney Griner * | 24 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 13 | 20 | - |
| DeWanna Bonner * | 23 | 4-7 | 0-1 | 3-3 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 9 | - |
| Monique Currie * | 23 | 4-7 | 2-5 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 9 | - |
| Candice Dupree * | 22 | 8-14 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 9 | - |
| Leilani Mitchell * | 16 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | - |
| Mistie Bass | 17 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 8 | - |
| Alex Harden | 17 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 7 | - |
| Noelle Quinn | 16 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Cayla George | 11 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Shameka Christon | 11 | 2-5 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 | - |
| Tiffany Bias | 8 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | - |
| Tess Madgen | 6 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | - |
* = starter