Model Predictions
| Model | Texas State Bobcats | Troy Trojans | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 27.5% | 72.5% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 49.1% | 50.9% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 51.4% | 48.6% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 41.3% | 58.7% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 48.8% | 51.2% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 47.9% | 52.1% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 53.6% | 46.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Troy Trojans -11 (46-57). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Texas State Bobcats
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wesley Davis * | 34 | 6-11 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 11 | +2.1 |
| D.J. Brown * | 27 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -3.0 |
| Emani Gant * | 25 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 6 | -1.4 |
| Kavin Gilder-Tilbury * | 22 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | +7.0 |
| JaMarcus Weatherspoon * | 18 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +5.5 |
| Ethan Montalvo | 25 | 6-10 | 6-9 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 14 | +12.3 |
| Cameron Naylor | 17 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1.0 |
| Kendell Ramlal | 15 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | +7.6 |
| Ojai Black | 13 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +11.4 |
| Victor Bermudez | 4 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -0.1 |
Troy Trojans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Musa Abdul-Aleem * | 33 | 6-14 | 3-8 | 5-5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 10 | -7.2 |
| Chris Bilbo * | 33 | 1-6 | 0-3 | 3-4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -11.1 |
| John Walton III * | 29 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -19.5 |
| Wesley Person * | 29 | 2-11 | 2-8 | 0-1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -3 | -11.4 |
| Kevin Thomas * | 20 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -3.2 |
| Kelton Ford | 28 | 2-6 | 0-3 | 4-6 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 7 | -7.7 |
| Aaron Ariri | 12 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +12.3 |
| Christian Harrison | 9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +3.6 |
| Oskar Reinfelds | 7 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1.6 |
* = starter