Model Predictions
| Model | Fresno State Bulldogs | New Mexico Lobos | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 13.8% | 86.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 25.1% | 74.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 23.5% | 76.5% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 31.6% | 68.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 7.9% | 92.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 7.8% | 92.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 23.3% | 76.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: New Mexico Lobos +12 (76-64). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Fresno State Bulldogs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Watson * | 40 | 3-9 | 3-8 | 3-3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 9 | -7.7 |
| Alex Davis * | 30 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 | +4.8 |
| Karachi Edo * | 28 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 11 | -6.3 |
| Julien Lewis * | 28 | 5-17 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 3 | -9.1 |
| Emmanuel Owootoah * | 23 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | +2.5 |
| Marvelle Harris | 33 | 7-14 | 3-7 | 2-3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 6 | -10.9 |
| Darnell Taylor | 15 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5.0 |
| Terrell Carter II | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +3.5 |
New Mexico Lobos
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hugh Greenwood * | 34 | 4-6 | 3-5 | 5-6 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 19 | +9.8 |
| Devon Williams * | 27 | 4-7 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 10 | -5.3 |
| Tim Jacobs * | 26 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 5-8 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 10 | -10.8 |
| Obij Aget * | 24 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 5 | -4.6 |
| Xavier Adams * | 23 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 5 | +10.3 |
| Deshawn Delaney | 27 | 4-8 | 2-2 | 2-4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 13 | +11.2 |
| JJ N'Ganga | 15 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | +9.9 |
| Joe Furstinger | 13 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 9 | +10.2 |
| Sam Logwood | 11 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | -1.8 |
* = starter