Model Predictions
| Model | Ole Miss Rebels | Dayton Flyers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 21.6% | 78.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 32.2% | 67.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 35.2% | 64.8% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 47.3% | 52.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 33.2% | 66.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 33.2% | 66.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 37.4% | 62.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Dayton Flyers +4 (78-74). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Ole Miss Rebels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarvis Summers * | 30 | 7-14 | 4-7 | 2-3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 11 | - |
| Stefan Moody * | 26 | 2-11 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | -3 | - |
| Sebastian Saiz * | 24 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 7 | - |
| M.J. Rhett * | 23 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 14 | - |
| Martavious Newby * | 16 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | - |
| LaDarius White | 24 | 5-13 | 1-4 | 3-3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 5 | - |
| Terence Smith | 17 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | - |
| Dwight Coleby | 15 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 9 | - |
| Aaron Jones | 14 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | - |
| Anthony Perez | 6 | 0-5 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | - |
| Roderick Lawrence | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - |
Dayton Flyers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Sibert * | 35 | 5-15 | 2-9 | 8-11 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 14 | - |
| Dyshawn Pierre * | 33 | 5-11 | 0-2 | 7-9 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 12 | - |
| Scoochie Smith * | 33 | 3-8 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 8 | - |
| Kendall Pollard * | 30 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 2-5 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 9 | - |
| Kyle Davis * | 30 | 4-6 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 16 | - |
| Bobby Wehrli | 17 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - |
| Darrell Davis | 15 | 3-3 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 6 | - |
| Ryan Bass | 7 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
* = starter