Model Predictions
| Model | Abilene Christian Wildcats | Grand Canyon Lopes | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 19.2% | 80.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 36.1% | 63.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 19.1% | 80.9% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 15.7% | 84.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 3.8% | 96.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 3.6% | 96.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 21.3% | 78.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Grand Canyon Lopes +2 (83-81). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Abilene Christian Wildcats
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Cooke * | 29 | 4-8 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 8 | -2.9 |
| Harrison Hawkins * | 29 | 8-14 | 3-7 | 7-8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 26 | 11 | +9.8 |
| Parker Wentz * | 25 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | +3.0 |
| Jalen Little * | 24 | 2-5 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | - |
| Christian Albright * | 20 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 12 | +10.2 |
| LaDarrien Williams | 29 | 7-15 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 6 | -4.9 |
| K.J. Maura | 15 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -7.1 |
| Riley Payne | 12 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1.5 |
| Michael Grant | 6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Drake Green | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +5.1 |
| Isaiah Tripp | 4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +3.8 |
| Duran Porter | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | -5.8 |
Grand Canyon Lopes
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royce Woolridge * | 35 | 3-5 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -3.8 |
| Jerome Garrison * | 34 | 6-9 | 0-1 | 2-5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 10 | -8.3 |
| Joshua Braun * | 33 | 7-12 | 3-4 | 1-3 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 17 | -12.2 |
| DeWayne Russell * | 31 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 10-14 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 15 | -5.3 |
| Kerwin Smith * | 16 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 5 | -13.5 |
| Daniel Alexander | 24 | 5-9 | 1-3 | 4-4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 7 | +3.1 |
| De'Andre Davis | 9 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -2.5 |
| Sam Daly | 9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -0.2 |
| Ryan Majerle | 9 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -2.4 |
* = starter