Model Predictions
| Model | Duke Blue Devils | North Carolina Tar Heels | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 72.4% | 27.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 58.8% | 41.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 50.2% | 49.8% | -0.1 | ✓ (6.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 51.4% | 48.6% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 67.0% | 33.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 69.9% | 30.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 70.1% | 29.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: North Carolina Tar Heels -7 (77-84). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Duke Blue Devils
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinn Cook * | 38 | 7-16 | 4-10 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 9 | - |
| Tyus Jones * | 37 | 5-10 | 2-4 | 12-12 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 29 | - |
| Jahlil Okafor * | 32 | 7-9 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 9 | - |
| Justise Winslow * | 22 | 5-9 | 1-3 | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 8 | - |
| Matt Jones * | 22 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Amile Jefferson | 31 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | - |
| Grayson Allen | 11 | 1-6 | 1-4 | 4-4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | - |
| Marshall Plumlee | 7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Paige * | 37 | 6-10 | 5-9 | 6-6 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 19 | - |
| Brice Johnson * | 30 | 8-12 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 12 | - |
| J.P. Tokoto * | 29 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 12 | - |
| Jackson Simmons * | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Luke Davis * | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Justin Jackson | 26 | 5-7 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 10 | - |
| Kennedy Meeks | 23 | 1-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | - |
| Joel James | 15 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Nate Britt | 11 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | - |
| Isaiah Hicks | 9 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | - |
| J. Berry II | 7 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -4 | - |
| Theo Pinson | 7 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | - |
* = starter