Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | Duke Blue Devils | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 16.1% | 83.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 28.2% | 71.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 25.9% | 74.1% | +5.8 | ✓ (3.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 42.6% | 57.4% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 27.0% | 73.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 24.1% | 75.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 23.9% | 76.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Duke Blue Devils +2 (92-90). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Tokoto * | 37 | 7-15 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 20 | - |
| Marcus Paige * | 34 | 2-11 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | - |
| Kennedy Meeks * | 33 | 8-10 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 17 | - |
| Brice Johnson * | 24 | 7-10 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 21 | - |
| Justin Jackson * | 17 | 1-8 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | - |
| J. Berry II | 24 | 1-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | - |
| Nate Britt | 23 | 4-10 | 0-2 | 3-6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 2 | - |
| Isaiah Hicks | 21 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 4 | - |
| Joel James | 12 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 8 | - |
Duke Blue Devils
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinn Cook * | 45 | 7-15 | 6-9 | 2-4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 11 | - |
| Tyus Jones * | 43 | 7-16 | 2-5 | 6-7 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 22 | 16 | - |
| Jahlil Okafor * | 41 | 6-11 | 0-0 | 0-6 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 15 | - |
| Justise Winslow * | 29 | 6-10 | 1-1 | 3-6 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 15 | - |
| Amile Jefferson * | 29 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 13 | 18 | - |
| Matt Jones | 27 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 8 | - |
| Marshall Plumlee | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Grayson Allen | 4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - |
* = starter