Model Predictions
| Model | Virginia Cavaliers | North Carolina Tar Heels | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 59.2% | 40.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 50.8% | 49.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 27.8% | 72.2% | +5.2 | ✗ (16.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 54.8% | 45.2% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 79.3% | 20.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 84.6% | 15.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 85.1% | 14.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: North Carolina Tar Heels -11 (64-75). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Virginia Cavaliers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Perrantes * | 37 | 6-10 | 1-3 | 2-4 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 12 | - |
| J. Anderson * | 36 | 6-10 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 19 | - |
| M. Brogdon * | 36 | 5-13 | 1-2 | 6-6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 10 | - |
| D. Atkins * | 32 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 4 | - |
| M. Tobey * | 19 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 5 | - |
| A. Gill | 27 | 6-8 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 15 | - |
| M. Shayok | 8 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| E. Nolte | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| I. Wilkins | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Paige * | 34 | 5-10 | 3-7 | 2-3 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 12 | - |
| J.P. Tokoto * | 30 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | - |
| J. Jackson * | 28 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 6 | - |
| K. Meeks * | 28 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 6 | - |
| B. Johnson * | 26 | 7-14 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 13 | - |
| N. Britt | 28 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 3 | - |
| I. Hicks | 14 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | - |
| J. James | 10 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - |
| J. Simmons | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| D. Hubert | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter