Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | Louisville Cardinals | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 51.0% | 49.0% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 40.1% | 59.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 63.1% | 36.9% | -3.0 | ✗ (13.0 off) |
| Pythagorean | 45.9% | 54.1% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 64.3% | 35.7% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 51.7% | 48.3% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 51.6% | 48.4% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Louisville Cardinals +10 (78-68). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Paige * | 40 | 5-12 | 3-8 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 7 | - |
| J. Jackson * | 38 | 4-13 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 3 | - |
| J.P. Tokoto * | 38 | 5-12 | 0-1 | 1-4 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 9 | - |
| K. Meeks * | 30 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 5 | - |
| B. Johnson * | 22 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 10 | - |
| N. Britt | 25 | 3-6 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 5 | - |
| I. Hicks | 15 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | - |
| J. James | 11 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | - |
| J. Simmons | 6 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
Louisville Cardinals
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Harrell * | 44 | 8-16 | 0-1 | 6-11 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 25 | - |
| T. Rozier * | 43 | 6-20 | 2-7 | 8-12 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 13 | - |
| C. Jones * | 35 | 4-14 | 3-5 | 6-9 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 13 | - |
| W. Blackshear * | 28 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | - |
| C. Onuaku * | 24 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | - |
| M. Mathiang | 20 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 13 | - |
| S. Aaron | 14 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | - |
| Q. Snider | 12 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| A. Gill | 5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter