Model Predictions
| Model | Duke Blue Devils | Virginia Cavaliers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 56.1% | 43.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 50.9% | 49.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 60.9% | 39.1% | -2.4 | ✓ (3.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 43.5% | 56.5% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 30.5% | 69.5% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 24.5% | 75.5% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 23.9% | 76.1% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Virginia Cavaliers -6 (63-69). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Duke Blue Devils
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Jones * | 38 | 5-10 | 2-5 | 5-6 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 14 | - |
| Q. Cook * | 36 | 6-10 | 3-4 | 0-1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 8 | - |
| J. Okafor * | 35 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 13 | - |
| J. Winslow * | 31 | 7-16 | 0-4 | 1-2 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 14 | - |
| A. Jefferson * | 20 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
| M. Jones | 24 | 4-9 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 6 | - |
| G. Allen | 11 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | - |
| M. Plumlee | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Virginia Cavaliers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Brogdon * | 37 | 7-15 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 9 | - |
| L. Perrantes * | 36 | 3-5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 7 | - |
| J. Anderson * | 33 | 4-11 | 1-6 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 6 | - |
| D. Atkins * | 28 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 5 | - |
| A. Gill * | 19 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | - |
| M. Tobey | 18 | 3-10 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | - |
| I. Wilkins | 14 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 7 | - |
| M. Shayok | 7 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| E. Nolte | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| D. Hall | 4 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter