Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | NC State Wolfpack | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 51.7% | 48.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 46.0% | 54.0% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 65.3% | 34.7% | -3.5 | ✓ (1.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 56.0% | 44.0% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 77.9% | 22.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 40.1% | 59.9% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 39.5% | 60.5% | - | ✗ |
Actual: NC State Wolfpack -2 (79-81). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Paige * | 36 | 6-9 | 5-5 | 6-6 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 32 | - |
| K. Meeks * | 34 | 7-13 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 14 | - |
| J.P. Tokoto * | 30 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 3-5 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 9 | - |
| J. Jackson * | 23 | 3-4 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 3 | - |
| B. Johnson * | 18 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 11 | - |
| I. Hicks | 22 | 6-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 8 | - |
| N. Britt | 18 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -1 | - |
| T. Pinson | 13 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | - |
| J. James | 4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | - |
| D. Hubert | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
NC State Wolfpack
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Lacey * | 38 | 4-13 | 1-6 | 10-10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 15 | - |
| K. Washington * | 30 | 8-14 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 8 | - |
| C. Barber * | 29 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 3 | - |
| R. Turner * | 28 | 7-17 | 5-14 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 6 | - |
| A. Abu * | 24 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 14 | - |
| B. Anya | 17 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | - |
| C. Martin | 12 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| L. Freeman | 8 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| C. Martin | 8 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | - |
| D. Lee | 6 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
* = starter