Model Predictions
| Model | William & Mary Tribe | North Carolina Tar Heels | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 13.7% | 86.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 28.3% | 71.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 12.1% | 87.9% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 39.5% | 60.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 2.2% | 97.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 2.0% | 98.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 12.2% | 87.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: North Carolina Tar Heels +22 (86-64). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
William & Mary Tribe
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Thornton * | 38 | 4-14 | 2-8 | 7-8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 6 | -6.1 |
| Terry Tarpey * | 34 | 1-6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -0.6 |
| Omar Prewitt * | 29 | 2-10 | 0-5 | 3-5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | -7.0 |
| Daniel Dixon * | 29 | 7-13 | 4-8 | 2-3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 12 | -11.4 |
| Sean Sheldon * | 27 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 9 | -2.5 |
| Greg Malinowski | 17 | 3-5 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 3 | -4.2 |
| Jack Whitman | 13 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6.9 |
| Michael Schlotman | 13 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | +1.0 |
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Paige * | 32 | 4-10 | 3-7 | 3-3 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 13 | +14.8 |
| J.P. Tokoto * | 29 | 7-10 | 2-3 | 3-4 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 20 | +12.5 |
| Brice Johnson * | 23 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 10 | +9.2 |
| Justin Jackson * | 20 | 3-9 | 0-4 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 | +0.4 |
| Kennedy Meeks * | 14 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 6 | +5.6 |
| Nate Britt | 20 | 3-6 | 2-4 | 3-4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 11 | +7.8 |
| Theo Pinson | 20 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 12 | +11.3 |
| Isaiah Hicks | 15 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +2.4 |
| Joel James | 9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3.0 |
| Joel Berry II | 8 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | -2.0 |
| Desmond Hubert | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +3.6 |
| Jackson Simmons | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3.6 |
* = starter