Model Predictions
| Model | Long Beach State Beach | Louisville Cardinals | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 7.5% | 92.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 17.1% | 82.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 13.9% | 86.1% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 23.3% | 76.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 1.3% | 98.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 1.2% | 98.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 15.0% | 85.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Louisville Cardinals +15 (63-48). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Long Beach State Beach
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Caffey * | 33 | 5-16 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11 | -2 | +0.9 |
| David Samuels * | 32 | 4-7 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 4 | -6.7 |
| McKay LaSalle * | 23 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -2.0 |
| Eric McKnight * | 19 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | +11.6 |
| Tyler Lamb * | 13 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -1 | +1.7 |
| Branford Jones | 28 | 4-8 | 2-3 | 3-3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 8 | -1.2 |
| Deontae North | 17 | 0-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -6 | -2.5 |
| Temidayo Yussuf | 14 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -14.4 |
| Jack Williams | 11 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | +4.2 |
| Justin Bibbins | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1.5 |
| Travis Hammonds | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4.6 |
Louisville Cardinals
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Rozier * | 37 | 7-14 | 3-7 | 6-8 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 21 | +5.5 |
| Montrezl Harrell * | 35 | 7-11 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 9 | +10.8 |
| Wayne Blackshear * | 35 | 3-6 | 1-4 | 5-6 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 14 | +14.0 |
| Anas Mahmoud * | 21 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | +6.1 |
| Shaqquan Aaron * | 5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -6.9 |
| Quentin Snider | 26 | 2-5 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | +4.3 |
| Mangok Mathiang | 20 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -2.2 |
| Chris Jones | 9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +1.6 |
| Anton Gill | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -4.0 |
| Jaylen Johnson | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3.9 |
| David Levitch | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1.6 |
* = starter