Model Predictions
| Model | Kentucky Wildcats | Louisville Cardinals | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 41.2% | 58.8% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 50.7% | 49.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 62.2% | 37.8% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 50.5% | 49.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 89.0% | 11.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 88.5% | 11.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 61.5% | 38.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Louisville Cardinals -8 (50-58). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Kentucky Wildcats
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Lyles * | 30 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 12 | - |
| K. Towns * | 26 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 8 | - |
| Aaron Harrison * | 26 | 2-10 | 2-7 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 | +4.7 |
| Willie Cauley-Stein * | 23 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 | +2.5 |
| Andrew Harrison * | 20 | 1-6 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | -2 | -8.0 |
| Devin Booker | 28 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 6 | - |
| Tyler Ulis | 26 | 5-8 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 9 | - |
| Dakari Johnson | 11 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -0.4 |
| Marcus Lee | 10 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | +1.3 |
Louisville Cardinals
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montrezl Harrell * | 40 | 4-9 | 0-1 | 1-3 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 9 | +2.0 |
| Terry Rozier * | 37 | 5-18 | 1-5 | 4-4 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 7 | -5.2 |
| Chris Jones * | 37 | 3-15 | 1-5 | 6-8 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 3 | -0.2 |
| Wayne Blackshear * | 35 | 2-9 | 0-2 | 6-9 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 1 | +6.0 |
| Chinanu Onuaku * | 20 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | - |
| Mangok Mathiang | 20 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -5.0 |
| Shaqquan Aaron | 10 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1.0 |
| Quentin Snider | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.1 |
* = starter