Model Predictions
| Model | Saint Mary's Gaels | Pepperdine Waves | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 59.2% | 40.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 69.5% | 30.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 60.7% | 39.3% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 52.8% | 47.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 82.5% | 17.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 82.7% | 17.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 53.9% | 46.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Pepperdine Waves -9 (59-68). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Saint Mary's Gaels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Waldow * | 37 | 6-14 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 10 | +11.1 |
| Desmond Simmons * | 36 | 3-6 | 2-4 | 3-4 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 14 | +7.2 |
| Kerry Carter * | 32 | 4-9 | 3-7 | 3-6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 8 | +9.2 |
| Aaron Bright * | 27 | 5-8 | 3-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 7 | +10.7 |
| Dane Pineau * | 8 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2.6 |
| Garrett Jackson | 34 | 5-8 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 12 | +12.0 |
| Emmett Naar | 26 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | +10.7 |
Pepperdine Waves
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stacy Davis * | 33 | 4-10 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 7 | -7.5 |
| Shawn Olden II * | 33 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 5 | -13.5 |
| Jeremy Major * | 28 | 4-7 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 10 | -2.5 |
| Jett Raines * | 27 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | -5.4 |
| Atif Russell * | 21 | 4-5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 6 | -8.6 |
| Amadi Udenyi | 22 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -8.0 |
| Lamond Murray Jr. | 18 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 12 | -0.4 |
| A.J. John | 13 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -7.2 |
| David Jesperson | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2.7 |
* = starter