Model Predictions
| Model | Santa Clara Broncos | Saint Mary's Gaels | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 18.7% | 81.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 36.0% | 64.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 28.2% | 71.8% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 37.8% | 62.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 12.1% | 87.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 11.9% | 88.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 29.4% | 70.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Saint Mary's Gaels +13 (73-60). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Santa Clara Broncos
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Clark * | 35 | 8-19 | 3-10 | 5-7 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 24 | 12 | +0.9 |
| Denzel Johnson * | 34 | 4-6 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 5 | -0.2 |
| Matt Hubbard * | 33 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 4-4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 8 | -3.3 |
| Jared Brownridge * | 25 | 2-12 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -2 | +2.3 |
| Jarvis Pugh * | 18 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | -0.3 |
| Nate Kratch | 23 | 0-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | -3.8 |
| Evan Wardlow | 14 | 4-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | -8.7 |
| Emmanuel Ndumanya | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5.1 |
| Jalen Richard | 6 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1.7 |
| Stephen Edwards | 5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | -1.7 |
Saint Mary's Gaels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Carter * | 40 | 5-15 | 1-6 | 2-4 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 10 | +7.0 |
| Brad Waldow * | 36 | 7-10 | 0-0 | 6-10 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 21 | +2.9 |
| Dane Pineau * | 31 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12 | +6.7 |
| Aaron Bright * | 26 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | +11.3 |
| Desmond Simmons * | 15 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -6.6 |
| Emmett Naar | 26 | 5-7 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 10 | +4.9 |
| Garrett Jackson | 24 | 8-12 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 13 | +1.3 |
| Treaven Duffy | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | -2.3 |
* = starter