Model Predictions
| Model | Lehigh Mountain Hawks | UMBC Retrievers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 59.4% | 40.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 72.0% | 28.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 71.4% | 28.6% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 74.3% | 25.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 94.1% | 5.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 94.2% | 5.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 68.8% | 31.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: UMBC Retrievers -3 (55-58). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Lehigh Mountain Hawks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kahron Ross * | 34 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 6 | -6.2 |
| Tim Kempton * | 33 | 5-11 | 0-0 | 2-5 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 12 | +5.0 |
| Austin Price * | 30 | 4-9 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 7 | -3.4 |
| Justin Goldsborough * | 26 | 6-10 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 16 | -11.5 |
| Corey Schaefer * | 19 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -9.9 |
| Miles Simelton | 22 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -9.0 |
| Jesse Chuku | 15 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -9.7 |
| Brandon Alston | 9 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | -3.2 |
| Devon Carter | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4.5 |
| Stefan Cvrkalj | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5.4 |
| J. Glover | 3 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -1.2 |
UMBC Retrievers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne Sparrow * | 37 | 7-19 | 4-6 | 6-6 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 24 | 9 | - |
| Jourdan Grant * | 36 | 0-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | +1.2 |
| Cody Joyce * | 33 | 1-10 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -2 | - |
| Devarick Houston * | 29 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 3-4 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 21 | - |
| Will Darley * | 15 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +12.4 |
| Malcolm Brent | 28 | 2-10 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -3 | +0.3 |
| Ben Grace | 14 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | +0.9 |
| Jakob Stenhede | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
* = starter