Model Predictions
| Model | South Florida Bulls | SMU Mustangs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 4.7% | 95.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 16.4% | 83.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 15.6% | 84.4% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 30.2% | 69.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 3.0% | 97.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 3.0% | 97.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 18.8% | 81.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: SMU Mustangs +34 (83-49). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
South Florida Bulls
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Allen Jr. * | 33 | 2-11 | 0-4 | 3-5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 3 | -15.2 |
| Anthony Collins * | 30 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | -20.4 |
| Chris Perry * | 25 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 12 | -13.1 |
| Nehemias Morillo * | 25 | 3-10 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 3 | -26.9 |
| Jaleel Cousins * | 12 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6.2 |
| Bo Zeigler | 27 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 9 | -11.2 |
| Troy Holston | 22 | 3-8 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 3 | -20.9 |
| Ruben Guerrero | 13 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -11.4 |
| Dre'Kalo Clayton | 8 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | +0.1 |
| Jake Bodway | 5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +7.7 |
SMU Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Moore * | 26 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 5-11 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 23 | +22.7 |
| Nic Moore * | 22 | 1-7 | 0-1 | 6-6 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 14 | +17.4 |
| Ryan Manuel * | 22 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | +26.2 |
| Yanick Moreira * | 18 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 12 | +13.4 |
| Keith Frazier * | 15 | 4-6 | 2-3 | 4-4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 13 | +11.8 |
| Markus Kennedy | 23 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +9.0 |
| Justin Martin | 16 | 4-6 | 0-1 | 3-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 8 | +2.2 |
| Ben Emelogu II | 14 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | +4.8 |
| Sterling Brown | 14 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | +23.3 |
| Cannen Cunningham | 13 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | +0.6 |
| Jonathan Wilfong | 8 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | -3.1 |
| Jean-Micheal Mudiay | 6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -8.3 |
| Kevin Dunleavy | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -1.1 |
* = starter