Model Predictions
| Model | Memphis Grizzlies | Dallas Mavericks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 45.4% | 54.6% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 53.9% | 46.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 43.2% | 56.8% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 48.2% | 51.8% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 46.2% | 53.8% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 46.1% | 53.9% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 42.0% | 58.0% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Dallas Mavericks -19 (90-109). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Memphis Grizzlies
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Randolph * | 33 | 10-15 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 14 | - |
| Jeff Green * | 30 | 3-7 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | - |
| Courtney Lee * | 30 | 5-7 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 11 | - |
| Marc Gasol * | 28 | 7-13 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 10 | - |
| Beno Udrih * | 20 | 4-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 7 | - |
| Nick Calathes | 27 | 4-8 | 2-3 | 3-4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 13 | - |
| Vince Carter | 26 | 3-10 | 1-7 | 5-5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 9 | - |
| Kosta Koufos | 20 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 8 | - |
| Jordan Adams | 10 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | - |
| Jon Leuer | 9 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Tyrus Thomas | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monta Ellis * | 33 | 8-16 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 4 | - |
| Chandler Parsons * | 32 | 7-11 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 11 | - |
| Tyson Chandler * | 31 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 9 | - |
| Dirk Nowitzki * | 29 | 5-12 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 9 | - |
| Rajon Rondo * | 27 | 3-8 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 | - |
| Devin Harris | 16 | 3-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 | - |
| J.J. Barea | 14 | 2-7 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | - |
| Dwight Powell | 13 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Richard Jefferson | 13 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Al-Farouq Aminu | 11 | 2-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | - |
| Charlie Villanueva | 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Raymond Felton | 5 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | - |
| Greg Smith | 5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
* = starter