Model Predictions
| Model | Orlando Magic | Memphis Grizzlies | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 9.6% | 90.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 18.1% | 81.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 26.2% | 73.8% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 35.7% | 64.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 21.0% | 79.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 21.0% | 79.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 26.9% | 73.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Memphis Grizzlies +9 (103-94). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Orlando Magic
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Vučević * | 39 | 6-13 | 0-0 | 6-7 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 16 | - |
| Elfrid Payton * | 35 | 5-14 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 6 | - |
| Victor Oladipo * | 32 | 6-11 | 1-3 | 5-6 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 15 | - |
| Aaron Gordon * | 20 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | - |
| Channing Frye * | 12 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | - |
| Dewayne Dedmon | 30 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 2-6 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 15 | - |
| Tobias Harris | 20 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | -1 | - |
| Willie Green | 19 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Evan Fournier | 16 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -1 | - |
| Kyle O'Quinn | 12 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | - |
Memphis Grizzlies
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marc Gasol * | 34 | 5-13 | 0-1 | 6-7 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 16 | - |
| Zach Randolph * | 33 | 8-13 | 0-2 | 8-8 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 24 | 26 | - |
| Courtney Lee * | 32 | 2-6 | 2-4 | 5-5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 9 | - |
| Jeff Green * | 26 | 4-6 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 15 | - |
| Mike Conley * | 21 | 2-8 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -3 | - |
| Beno Udrih | 26 | 6-8 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 17 | - |
| Vince Carter | 21 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 4 | - |
| Nick Calathes | 15 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | - |
| Jon Leuer | 14 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 5 | - |
| Kosta Koufos | 13 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter