Model Predictions
| Model | Houston Rockets | Los Angeles Lakers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 67.6% | 32.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 80.6% | 19.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 63.8% | 36.2% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 64.7% | 35.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 74.6% | 25.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 74.6% | 25.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 64.2% | 35.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Los Angeles Lakers -12 (87-99). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Houston Rockets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Harden * | 35 | 12-20 | 4-11 | 9-10 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 37 | 26 | - |
| Donatas Motiejunas * | 32 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 12 | - |
| Trevor Ariza * | 31 | 3-14 | 1-8 | 2-2 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 9 | - |
| Joey Dorsey * | 25 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 | - |
| Patrick Beverley * | 25 | 3-10 | 3-10 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 10 | - |
| Corey Brewer | 27 | 4-9 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 5 | - |
| Josh Smith | 25 | 5-10 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 10 | - |
| Jason Terry | 20 | 4-9 | 2-7 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 7 | - |
| Kostas Papanikolaou | 9 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Clint Capela | 5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | - |
| Alexey Shved | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | - |
Los Angeles Lakers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Clarkson * | 27 | 2-10 | 0-3 | 4-4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 8 | -4 | - |
| Wayne Ellington * | 25 | 6-12 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 9 | - |
| Robert Sacre * | 21 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 8 | - |
| Jordan Hill * | 20 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 8 | - |
| Ryan Kelly * | 19 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Jeremy Lin | 28 | 2-9 | 0-3 | 10-14 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 8 | - |
| Wesley Johnson | 28 | 3-6 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | - |
| Ed Davis | 24 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 13 | - |
| Carlos Boozer | 22 | 9-13 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 17 | - |
| Nick Young | 8 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -2 | - |
| Tarik Black | 7 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | - |
| Ronnie Price | 6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
* = starter