Model Predictions
| Model | Washington Wizards | Denver Nuggets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 64.1% | 35.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 70.4% | 29.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 54.0% | 46.0% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 57.3% | 42.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 61.9% | 38.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 61.9% | 38.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 53.9% | 46.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Denver Nuggets -2 (115-117). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Washington Wizards
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Wall * | 42 | 8-16 | 1-6 | 2-2 | 3 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 21 | - |
| Paul Pierce * | 32 | 4-9 | 1-2 | 10-14 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 15 | - |
| Nene Hilario * | 30 | 7-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 8 | - |
| Marcin Gortat * | 27 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 12 | - |
| Bradley Beal * | 27 | 6-11 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 3 | - |
| Kris Humphries | 33 | 9-13 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 22 | - |
| Rasual Butler | 28 | 3-8 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 5 | - |
| Martell Webster | 14 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | - |
| Kevin Seraphin | 14 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 4 | - |
| Andre Miller | 10 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Otto Porter Jr. | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arron Afflalo * | 42 | 4-17 | 1-7 | 2-2 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 1 | - |
| Ty Lawson * | 42 | 10-20 | 3-5 | 8-8 | 3 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 31 | 27 | - |
| Kenneth Faried * | 38 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 13 | - |
| Wilson Chandler * | 37 | 8-19 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 12 | - |
| Jusuf Nurkić * | 18 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 11 | - |
| Darrell Arthur | 29 | 6-15 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | -1 | - |
| JJ Hickson | 19 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 4-8 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 8 | - |
| Danilo Gallinari | 15 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 4-4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 5 | - |
| Jameer Nelson | 13 | 3-4 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 10 | - |
| Randy Foye | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter