Model Predictions
| Model | Milwaukee Bucks | San Antonio Spurs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 14.1% | 85.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 33.1% | 66.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 33.7% | 66.3% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 44.8% | 55.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 35.6% | 64.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 35.6% | 64.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 38.1% | 61.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: San Antonio Spurs +6 (101-95). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Milwaukee Bucks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Knight * | 35 | 4-15 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 1 | - |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo * | 33 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 11 | - |
| Khris Middleton * | 30 | 9-14 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 16 | - |
| Zaza Pachulia * | 24 | 5-11 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 12 | - |
| Ersan Ilyasova * | 22 | 4-8 | 1-2 | 2-4 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 8 | - |
| O.J. Mayo | 28 | 4-10 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 10 | - |
| Jerryd Bayless | 22 | 5-10 | 0-1 | 5-7 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 13 | - |
| Jared Dudley | 19 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 1 | - |
| John Henson | 16 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 | - |
| Kenyon Martin | 7 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kawhi Leonard * | 36 | 4-11 | 1-5 | 10-12 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 28 | - |
| Tony Parker * | 35 | 3-13 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 3 | - |
| Tim Duncan * | 31 | 9-13 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 20 | 19 | - |
| Danny Green * | 22 | 1-9 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Matt Bonner * | 15 | 2-7 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | - |
| Manu Ginobili | 29 | 3-8 | 1-2 | 6-8 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 6 | - |
| Boris Diaw | 28 | 7-11 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 6 | - |
| Cory Joseph | 16 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Tiago Splitter | 16 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 10 | - |
| Patty Mills | 6 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | - |
| Aron Baynes | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | - |
* = starter