Model Predictions
| Model | Indiana Pacers | Orlando Magic | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 37.9% | 62.1% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 51.9% | 48.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 54.6% | 45.4% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 57.0% | 43.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 63.1% | 36.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 63.2% | 36.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 53.5% | 46.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Orlando Magic -7 (99-106). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Indiana Pacers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Watson * | 36 | 3-7 | 2-4 | 3-4 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 16 | - |
| David West * | 34 | 8-15 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 12 | - |
| Solomon Hill * | 30 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Rodney Stuckey * | 27 | 6-10 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 8 | - |
| Roy Hibbert * | 23 | 5-12 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 13 | - |
| Damjan Rudez | 29 | 7-10 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 12 | - |
| Ian Mahinmi | 24 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 16 | - |
| George Hill | 20 | 7-15 | 1-6 | 2-3 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 13 | - |
| Luis Scola | 13 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | - |
Orlando Magic
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Vučević * | 34 | 11-17 | 0-0 | 5-5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 17 | - |
| Victor Oladipo * | 33 | 8-17 | 1-4 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 4 | - |
| Channing Frye * | 32 | 3-10 | 2-5 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 5 | - |
| Elfrid Payton * | 31 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 2-5 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 13 | - |
| Aaron Gordon * | 21 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 9 | - |
| Tobias Harris | 29 | 2-5 | 1-1 | 6-9 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 14 | - |
| Evan Fournier | 17 | 2-7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | - |
| Willie Green | 16 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | - |
| Kyle O'Quinn | 13 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | - |
| Devyn Marble | 9 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
* = starter