Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Chicago Bulls | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 30.3% | 69.7% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 36.0% | 64.0% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 36.5% | 63.5% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 41.6% | 58.4% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 34.0% | 66.0% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 33.9% | 66.1% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 34.3% | 65.7% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Chicago Bulls -12 (84-96). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Chalmers * | 40 | 5-10 | 1-3 | 4-4 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 13 | - |
| Luol Deng * | 38 | 5-15 | 0-2 | 5-7 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 14 | - |
| Dwyane Wade * | 38 | 10-18 | 0-0 | 6-6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 26 | 9 | - |
| Chris Bosh * | 36 | 9-20 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 10 | - |
| Chris Andersen * | 20 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12 | - |
| Shabazz Napier | 26 | 0-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Hassan Whiteside | 24 | 6-10 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 14 | 29 | - |
| Shawne Williams | 11 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Udonis Haslem | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
Chicago Bulls
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Butler III * | 42 | 2-8 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | - |
| Pau Gasol * | 36 | 6-16 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 19 | - |
| Derrick Rose * | 33 | 7-17 | 0-6 | 5-6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 6 | - |
| Tony Snell * | 22 | 3-7 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 4 | - |
| Joakim Noah * | 22 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | - |
| Taj Gibson | 25 | 3-10 | 0-0 | 5-8 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 12 | - |
| Kirk Hinrich | 24 | 1-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Aaron Brooks | 21 | 6-11 | 4-5 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 7 | - |
| Nikola Mirotic | 11 | 2-7 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -1 | - |
* = starter