Model Predictions
| Model | Houston Rockets | Phoenix Suns | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 38.2% | 61.8% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 62.4% | 37.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 49.0% | 51.0% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 51.8% | 48.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 56.9% | 43.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 56.9% | 43.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 49.8% | 50.2% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Phoenix Suns -2 (111-113). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Houston Rockets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Harden * | 39 | 8-18 | 3-6 | 14-17 | 6 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 33 | 32 | - |
| Trevor Ariza * | 36 | 5-10 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 9 | - |
| Patrick Beverley * | 33 | 5-13 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 10 | - |
| Donatas Motiejunas * | 22 | 7-11 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 10 | - |
| Dwight Howard * | 8 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | - |
| Josh Smith | 25 | 7-11 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 5 | - |
| Corey Brewer | 21 | 7-12 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 6 | - |
| Joey Dorsey | 20 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 | - |
| Kostas Papanikolaou | 17 | 0-4 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
| Jason Terry | 14 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | - |
Phoenix Suns
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Bledsoe * | 38 | 8-14 | 1-4 | 8-10 | 8 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 26 | - |
| P.J. Tucker * | 29 | 2-7 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Alex Len * | 24 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 | - |
| Markieff Morris * | 23 | 9-14 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 10 | - |
| Goran Dragic * | 18 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | - |
| Isaiah Thomas | 37 | 7-20 | 4-9 | 4-4 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 6 | - |
| Marcus Morris Sr. | 23 | 5-9 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 12 | - |
| Gerald Green | 23 | 6-14 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 3 | - |
| Brandan Wright | 15 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Miles Plumlee | 5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
* = starter