Model Predictions
| Model | Boston Celtics | Denver Nuggets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 20.7% | 79.3% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 37.9% | 62.1% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 42.8% | 57.2% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 50.0% | 50.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 47.0% | 53.0% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 47.0% | 53.0% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 45.1% | 54.9% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Denver Nuggets -1 (99-100). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Boston Celtics
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Bass * | 35 | 5-12 | 0-0 | 7-8 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 23 | - |
| Avery Bradley * | 30 | 7-11 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 10 | - |
| Jared Sullinger * | 28 | 5-13 | 0-4 | 4-8 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 10 | - |
| Evan Turner * | 27 | 5-8 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 12 | - |
| Jae Crowder * | 21 | 3-3 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 12 | - |
| Tyler Zeller | 23 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 6 | - |
| Marcus Thornton | 17 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | - |
| Tayshaun Prince | 16 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | - |
| Phil Pressey | 15 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | - |
| Marcus Smart | 14 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | - |
| Gerald Wallace | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameer Nelson * | 41 | 9-20 | 4-7 | 1-2 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 7 | - |
| Arron Afflalo * | 38 | 6-13 | 1-4 | 7-7 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 14 | - |
| Kenneth Faried * | 38 | 4-12 | 0-0 | 3-5 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 16 | - |
| Wilson Chandler * | 36 | 5-15 | 1-5 | 3-4 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 11 | - |
| Jusuf Nurkić * | 14 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | - |
| JJ Hickson | 29 | 6-8 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 25 | - |
| Danilo Gallinari | 17 | 1-7 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -2 | - |
| Darrell Arthur | 12 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 | - |
| Randy Foye | 11 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -3 | - |
* = starter