Model Predictions
| Model | Los Angeles Lakers | San Antonio Spurs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 9.4% | 90.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 21.5% | 78.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 26.2% | 73.8% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 34.6% | 65.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 23.3% | 76.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 23.2% | 76.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 27.8% | 72.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: San Antonio Spurs +14 (99-85). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Los Angeles Lakers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Clarkson * | 29 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 8 | - |
| Wayne Ellington * | 27 | 5-12 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 6 | - |
| Robert Sacre * | 26 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 | - |
| Jordan Hill * | 22 | 4-12 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 2 | - |
| Ryan Kelly * | 21 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 3-5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 7 | - |
| Wesley Johnson | 26 | 2-8 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 8 | - |
| Carlos Boozer | 25 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 6 | - |
| Ed Davis | 21 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 8 | - |
| Nick Young | 20 | 5-11 | 3-6 | 4-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 5 | - |
| Ronnie Price | 18 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | - |
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kawhi Leonard * | 33 | 6-12 | 1-3 | 2-3 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 21 | - |
| Danny Green * | 28 | 2-6 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 3 | - |
| Tony Parker * | 22 | 7-14 | 1-1 | 2-4 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 7 | - |
| Tim Duncan * | 20 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 17 | - |
| Matt Bonner * | 18 | 2-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | - |
| Manu Ginobili | 23 | 6-9 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 10 | - |
| Boris Diaw | 19 | 1-8 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | - |
| Tiago Splitter | 18 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | - |
| Aron Baynes | 18 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | - |
| Cory Joseph | 18 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 4-5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | - |
| Patty Mills | 12 | 2-6 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | - |
| Jeff Ayres | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| JaMychal Green | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter