Model Predictions
| Model | Indiana Pacers | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 25.9% | 74.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 39.9% | 60.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 48.3% | 51.7% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 52.7% | 47.3% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 54.5% | 45.5% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 54.6% | 45.4% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 49.5% | 50.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +2 (89-87). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Indiana Pacers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David West * | 32 | 5-14 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 4 | - |
| C.J. Watson * | 26 | 3-6 | 2-3 | 5-6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 14 | - |
| Solomon Hill * | 25 | 2-9 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -1 | - |
| Roy Hibbert * | 17 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | - |
| CJ Miles * | 6 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | - |
| Rodney Stuckey | 33 | 4-11 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 3 | - |
| Ian Mahinmi | 29 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 14 | - |
| Damjan Rudez | 19 | 0-4 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3 | - |
| George Hill | 19 | 5-10 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 6 | - |
| Luis Scola | 15 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 12 | - |
| Donald Sloan | 9 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Chris Copeland | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luol Deng * | 35 | 9-13 | 3-3 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 17 | - |
| Chris Bosh * | 33 | 8-16 | 0-4 | 3-3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 8 | - |
| Dwyane Wade * | 32 | 5-16 | 0-2 | 3-5 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 13 | -3 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 29 | 3-7 | 0-2 | 3-3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | - |
| Chris Andersen * | 28 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 14 | - |
| Shabazz Napier | 21 | 1-5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | - |
| Shawne Williams | 17 | 3-8 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | -2 | - |
| Udonis Haslem | 16 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | - |
| Danny Granger | 12 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Norris Cole | 12 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
* = starter