Model Predictions
| Model | Houston Rockets | Golden State Warriors | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 24.8% | 75.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 34.1% | 65.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 31.9% | 68.1% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 44.3% | 55.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 30.9% | 69.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 30.8% | 69.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 30.5% | 69.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Golden State Warriors +13 (126-113). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Houston Rockets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Harden * | 31 | 8-18 | 3-6 | 14-16 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 33 | 26 | - |
| Trevor Ariza * | 27 | 2-9 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | - |
| Patrick Beverley * | 25 | 3-6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5 | - |
| Donatas Motiejunas * | 24 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | - |
| Dwight Howard * | 23 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 6 | - |
| Corey Brewer | 27 | 6-13 | 2-5 | 6-7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 16 | - |
| Jason Terry | 20 | 4-8 | 4-6 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 7 | - |
| Joey Dorsey | 16 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 16 | - |
| Alexey Shved | 14 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 3 | - |
| Kostas Papanikolaou | 14 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Josh Smith | 13 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | - |
Golden State Warriors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry * | 33 | 7-12 | 3-5 | 5-6 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 22 | 18 | - |
| Draymond Green * | 33 | 7-12 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 15 | - |
| Klay Thompson * | 31 | 10-21 | 3-8 | 4-4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 18 | - |
| Harrison Barnes * | 27 | 4-8 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 8 | - |
| Andrew Bogut * | 22 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 18 | - |
| Andre Iguodala | 27 | 3-9 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | - |
| David Lee | 19 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 15 | - |
| Shaun Livingston | 13 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 9 | - |
| Leandro Barbosa | 12 | 3-8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -1 | - |
| Marreese Speights | 8 | 3-5 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 5 | - |
| Brandon Rush | 4 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Justin Holiday | 4 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter