Model Predictions
| Model | Toronto Raptors | Memphis Grizzlies | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 24.6% | 75.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 42.0% | 58.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 45.6% | 54.4% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 51.1% | 48.9% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 51.2% | 48.8% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 51.2% | 48.8% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 46.9% | 53.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Memphis Grizzlies +6 (92-86). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Toronto Raptors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Lowry * | 39 | 7-23 | 2-8 | 4-7 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 8 | - |
| Amir Johnson * | 32 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 8 | - |
| DeMar DeRozan * | 32 | 2-11 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -2 | - |
| Jonas Valanciunas * | 28 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 15 | - |
| Greivis Vasquez * | 22 | 1-8 | 0-5 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Lou Williams | 23 | 6-15 | 2-8 | 7-7 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 9 | - |
| Patrick Patterson | 23 | 2-7 | 1-6 | 6-6 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 12 | - |
| Terrence Ross | 17 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Tyler Hansbrough | 11 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | - |
| James Johnson | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
Memphis Grizzlies
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Randolph * | 36 | 8-14 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 18 | - |
| Marc Gasol * | 35 | 9-16 | 0-0 | 8-9 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 22 | - |
| Mike Conley * | 29 | 4-11 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 3 | - |
| Jeff Green * | 26 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | - |
| Tony Allen * | 25 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | - |
| Courtney Lee | 28 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | - |
| Beno Udrih | 18 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | - |
| Kosta Koufos | 15 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 12 | - |
| Nick Calathes | 13 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Jon Leuer | 6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Vince Carter | 5 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter