Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Charlotte Hornets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 33.0% | 67.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 55.7% | 44.3% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 43.9% | 56.1% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 47.5% | 52.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 45.8% | 54.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 45.7% | 54.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 42.7% | 57.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Charlotte Hornets +2 (78-76). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Bosh * | 34 | 7-20 | 1-6 | 2-2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 6 | - |
| Dwyane Wade * | 33 | 8-21 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 8 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 31 | 4-10 | 1-3 | 4-6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 5 | - |
| Chris Andersen * | 19 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 10 | - |
| Danny Granger * | 19 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | - |
| James Ennis III | 28 | 2-8 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 9 | - |
| Shawne Williams | 26 | 3-9 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 4 | - |
| Shabazz Napier | 22 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | - |
| Udonis Haslem | 14 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Norris Cole | 8 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
Charlotte Hornets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kemba Walker * | 34 | 4-17 | 2-9 | 5-6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 0 | - |
| Cody Zeller * | 31 | 1-8 | 0-0 | 4-7 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 18 | - |
| Gerald Henderson * | 30 | 4-13 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 2 | - |
| Michael Kidd-Gilchrist * | 28 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 4-8 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 15 | - |
| Bismack Biyombo * | 25 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 15 | - |
| Lance Stephenson | 21 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Marvin Williams | 19 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Al Jefferson | 18 | 6-11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 9 | - |
| Gary Neal | 16 | 1-5 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Brian Roberts | 13 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | - |
* = starter