Model Predictions
| Model | San Antonio Spurs | Denver Nuggets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 58.7% | 41.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 64.9% | 35.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 58.5% | 41.5% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 57.0% | 43.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 65.5% | 34.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 65.6% | 34.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 56.3% | 43.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Denver Nuggets -10 (99-109). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Parker * | 31 | 8-16 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 12 | - |
| Danny Green * | 30 | 2-12 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -1 | - |
| Kawhi Leonard * | 30 | 6-13 | 3-6 | 2-2 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 23 | - |
| Tim Duncan * | 28 | 6-10 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 13 | - |
| Tiago Splitter * | 17 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 9 | - |
| Boris Diaw | 27 | 4-8 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 7 | - |
| Manu Ginobili | 23 | 4-12 | 1-4 | 2-6 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 11 | - |
| Aron Baynes | 15 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 9-9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 14 | - |
| Patty Mills | 15 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | - |
| Cory Joseph | 12 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Matt Bonner | 5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - |
| JaMychal Green | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Jeff Ayres | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wilson Chandler * | 37 | 5-11 | 0-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 5 | - |
| Kenneth Faried * | 37 | 9-17 | 0-0 | 8-12 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 23 | - |
| Ty Lawson * | 33 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 | - |
| Arron Afflalo * | 32 | 6-11 | 3-6 | 6-8 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 16 | - |
| Jusuf Nurkić * | 25 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 9 | - |
| Jameer Nelson | 23 | 4-11 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 2 | - |
| JJ Hickson | 19 | 3-8 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 8 | - |
| Darrell Arthur | 15 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | - |
| Randy Foye | 14 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | - |
* = starter