Model Predictions
| Model | Oklahoma City Thunder | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 49.7% | 50.3% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 54.7% | 45.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 57.3% | 42.7% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 57.1% | 42.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 66.6% | 33.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 66.7% | 33.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 57.5% | 42.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat -8 (86-94). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Oklahoma City Thunder
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Durant * | 39 | 9-24 | 0-8 | 1-1 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 16 | - |
| Russell Westbrook * | 35 | 8-17 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 19 | - |
| Serge Ibaka * | 30 | 4-10 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 | - |
| Steven Adams * | 18 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | - |
| Andre Roberson * | 14 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | - |
| Dion Waiters | 26 | 1-9 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | - |
| Reggie Jackson | 25 | 7-9 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 8 | - |
| Kendrick Perkins | 23 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Anthony Morrow | 17 | 5-9 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 8 | - |
| Nick Collison | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Bosh * | 36 | 5-12 | 1-3 | 5-6 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 9 | - |
| Dwyane Wade * | 34 | 8-18 | 0-2 | 2-4 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 5 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 28 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 2 | - |
| Luol Deng * | 28 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 5 | - |
| Hassan Whiteside * | 11 | 5-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 7 | - |
| Chris Andersen | 28 | 3-6 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 8 | - |
| Danny Granger | 25 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 6 | - |
| Norris Cole | 17 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | - |
| Shabazz Napier | 15 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 7 | - |
| Udonis Haslem | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - |
| Shawne Williams | 6 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
* = starter